To better understand potential reasons, Carpenter and his team evaluated the incidence of chronic GVHD requiring systemic immunosuppression therapy among all Fred Hutch patients who underwent HCT from 2005 to 2019. Their analysis revealed that the incidence of chronic GVHD declined by ~19% for every 5-year increment post HCT date even after adjusting for anticipated cause-associated factors. Over the 15-year study period, serial advances in a variety of transplant approaches might have been responsible for the improving outcomes. “We speculated that such approaches were greater use of naive and other forms of T cell depletion, moving the pretransplant cyclophosphamide component of conditioning therapy to posttransplant days 3 and 4, as well as newer combinations of posttransplant GVHD prevention medications,” describes Dr. Carpenter. Over time, Fred Hutch has also done more HCTs for non-malignant diseases, more cord blood transplants, and more transplants in children, where chronic GVHD is lower in most cases. “As it turned out, none of our speculations could sufficiently explain the stepwise decline in chronic GVHD in all populations examined,” notes Dr. Carpenter. The analysis suggests there are yet to be determined factors that need to be considered when assessing new ways to prevent GVHD. “Contemporaneous controls are essential to avoid attributing a favorable decline in chronic GVHD to a novel approach when in reality it may simply have been relative to a control group from an earlier era, even transplanted just a few years prior.”
While it is promising that chronic GVHD rates are in decline, further work will be needed to identify new risk factors that are influencing chronic GVHD. Some suspects include the role of the microbiome and its response to antibiotics, the frequency and magnitude of cytomegalovirus viremia, and donor clonal hematopoiesis. For those patients who do still develop GVHD, “further study will be needed to better understand how more recent HCT approaches impact the incidence and response to treatment of highly morbid GVHD subtypes that affect the lung, the eye and the skin,” says Dr. Carpenter.